http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/reprint/321/7252/40.pdf

It is difficult to justify the conventionally unfavorable forecasts of the relation between demand and supply in terms of overall epidemiological trends, as these are broadly favorable. Among the main disease groups that underlie demand, the rates of coronary heart disease and stroke have been declining since the 1970s. Trends in cancer differ between younger and older people. (Au)